Friday, December 22, 2006


In today's column, Polly Toynbee writes:

Thus Gordon Brown personally is well ahead of the three party leaders as "doing a good job". Blair's rating is -34, Cameron is -5 and Campbell -9.

The MORI research actually has Brown on zero -- it says:

Over two in five (42%) people say they are satisfied with Gordon Brown's performance with as many saying they are dissatisfied — giving a net satisfaction rating of zero. When Ipsos MORI last measured public approval of Gordon Brown in February 2006, 47% of the public said they were satisfied with his performance (5 points higher than now) and 36% dissatisfied (6 points lower than now).

Not that "well ahead" of -5, one could argue.


She also writes:

Remember at the same point a year after becoming leader, Blair personally hit 30% approval while David Cameron is down on -5%.

The Labour leadership election was July 1994.  By July 1995, according to MORI, satisfaction with Blair was at 51% and dissatisfaction at 24% -- a net approval of 27%, and not 30% on a directly comparable basis.


She goes on to write:

The Cameron myth has cracks: he is not scoring well with women, and he is only ahead on traditional Tory turf - tax, crime, asylum; leading a little on health is his one break with tradition.

Maybe we would be wise to distrust people who peddle the "myth" that Cameron does well with women?


Polly asks:

Why isn't Labour doing worse? It's the economy, stupid. Look at Ipsos Mori's end of year assessment and it is the one issue where Labour gallops a mile ahead. People are secure in work in the most prolonged growth since records began...

Yes, do look at the Mori research:

The December Economic Optimism Index stands at minus 27


In November 2006, MORI asked:

On balance, do you agree or disagree with the statement that "in the long term, this government's policies will improve the state of Britain's economy"?

39% agreed, 51% disagreed (source).



It is almost Christmas, and it is good to see the old favourites being dusted down and recycled again, like:

...the papers predict next year's house price rise at 7%, 10% or 15%. That means 70% of the population gloats daily over their rising wealth and good luck their parents never dreamed of. This is the true national lottery - and all home owners are winners.

We've seen the 70% of the population are homeowners before a number of times this year, and it is not true.


Anonymous said...

Always interesting to look at historic opinion poll data. According to MORI the highest ever approval ratings for a Chancellor were for Dennis Healey with a +46 in '76 (the year that we needed a £1,000,000,000 IMF loan,£4.6b in today's money) and a stunning +49 in '78 at the beginning of Labour's last year in Government. The end of that financial year saw Labour out of power for a generation.

Fidothedog said...

Have you seen this weeks Private Eye? The OBN go's to guess who? Yep Polly for this classic gem...

Twice a year Grodon Brown fills his partys's sails with pride. His tordado of facts and figures magics up images of untold national wealth and success.
Standing at the dispatch box, the towering supriority of his brain makes intellectual pygmies of his opponents.

Mr Eugenides said...

Needless to say the weekend's YouGov poll in the Sunday Times saw Cameron with a healthy lead among women.

Given that Polly wrote a whole bleedin' piece about the 'failure' of women to back Labour, it is baffling that she should forget her own rhetoric so swiftly.